The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates holiday season sales in November and December to increase 3.9 percent to $602.1 billion. That would exceed last year’s holiday season sales growth of 3.5 percent, as well the 10-year average holiday sales growth of 3.3 percent.

While this year’s expected growth is marginal, every little bit helps, since holiday shopping accounts for 20 percent of the retail industry’s total annual sales, and can add up to 40 percent of an individual retailer’s annual sales.

“Our forecast is a realistic look at where we are right now in this economy—balancing continued uncertainty in Washington and an economy that has been teetering on incremental growth for years,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “Overall, retailers are optimistic for the 2013 holiday season, hoping political debates over government spending and the debt ceiling do not erase any economic progress we’ve already made.”

Offering further optimism is the Shop.org forecast that online sales in November and December will increase 13 to 15 percent over last year’s holiday shopping season to as much as $82 billion.

“Online and mobile continue to be a leading area of growth for retailers,” Shay said. “In this economy, savvy, cost-conscious consumers go to the web to do their research and get the best bang for their buck.”

Just how many holiday bucks consumers have to spend will largely depend on their employment situation, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “In order for consumers to turn out this holiday season, we need to see steady improvements in income and job growth,” Kleinhenz said, “as well as an agreement from Washington that puts the economic recovery first.”

Hundreds of thousands of jobs are expected to be created once again during the holiday season, with the NRF estimating that retailers will hire between 720,000 and 780,000 seasonal workers this year. In 2012, retailers hired 720,500 seasonal employees, which was an increase of 13 percent from 2011.